RO SHAW led us in the Salute to our Flag, followed by
LENNY FRIEDMAN and LYNDON PARKER with the song. And since YOE was
almost late to the meeting, I don't seem to know which song was offered,
but I'm sure we got through it in our usual memorable manner. LENNY,
already being up there, then gave the Invocation -and from this point
on, I was present so have no excuse for any errors , which may appear
We had a visiting Rotarian, Bill Bulloch, from Santa
Monica - he was formerly with the Gas Company. There were lots of
visitors, with PP HOMER NEWMAN introducing his Special Guest, Lillian
Kliewer - she is in Real Estate. KEN KILPO was with Jay Handal, who
was his Special Guest - Jay is the owner of San Genaro Restaurant.
Both of these guests were circularized in the Windmill of last week,
by the way - (and I still don't know why it arrived so late). Pat
was there with PDG ANDY ANDERSON. PP BOB LUSK brought another Special
Guest, Michael Gintz, and Manager of the Westwood office of City National
Bank. Alon Doron was the Special Guest of DON PARK. ED JACKSON introduced
his nephew, Deren Tadlock, who is trying to break in as an actor.
BRUCE ROLF was with Marie. And again, let's hear it for these members
who are actively bringing us new prospects - HOMER, KEN, BOB and DON
- you are really showing the rest of us the way to go!
PP HOWIE HENKES had several guests from the Police Department,
including Captain Richard Wemmer, the Commander of the WLA Division,
Lt. Michelle Veenstra, Detective Supervisor, Francine Mounger, a detective
at WLA, and her partner, Jim Hays. HOWIE then spoke briefly about
past member GEORGE SCHWARTZ, who has funded three Paul Harris Fellows
each year since he passed away in l973. Detective Mounger was asked
to step to the podium, and HOWIE then outlined her many contributions
to successful police activity, both in WLA and nearby. She is a twenty-year
veteran of the LAPD, and specific instances where she made a difference
in apprehending criminals or aborting planned criminal activity were
outlined by HOWIE. As a result of this outstanding service, Francine
was not only presented with a Paul Harris Fellowship, but was named
the West Los Angeles Police Officer of the Year. Francine is typical
of the top quality people who serve us in the LAPD - her standing
ovation was richly deserved!
Before the Program of the Day began, PP STEVE SCHERER
alluded to an article in the January 5th Sunday Edition of the New
York Times. Seems that YOE's son, Ernie III, was featured in a nine-page
article (in color) about what he does in selling the primitive art
at his gallery in WLA. Somehow, this qualified as a source for a fine,
which was assessed at one thousand clams. Fortunately, YOE had just
received 900 Dea Dollars, which were immediately applied to the penalty.
Talk about timely - Pres. GEORGE, I've said before that I LIKE the
Dea Dollar idea, and I sure as hell LOVE it now!
Today is the one day of the year when we learn all there
is to know about the financial markets, and PP STEVE SCHERER very
capably chaired the program, as he has over the years. STEVE gave
some background, pointing out that this is the first time in history
that the Market has fallen three years in a row. We all remember the
Market was closed for the four days following 9/11 - the only other
time such emergency measures were taken was in March of 1933, when
not only the Market but the banks were closed for nine days. During
2001, the Dow dropped 7 %, while the S&P was down 13% and Nasdaq dropped
21%. In the survey by our professionals during last year's report,
they expected the DOW to go up 6%, closing at 11,420 - and as STEVE
pointed out, that only missed it by 1399 points! Last year they each
picked an energy stock, and this year health-care will be featured.
However, before their reports, the non-pros in the audience voted
to expect a 5% increase in the Dow, with l year treasuries about even,
and the 30 years a bit higher.
JIM BECHTEL - who has recently moved to Roxbury Capital,
where he is a Principal, opened with the confidence-inspiring remark
that it's better to be lucky then good! He is predicting the Dow at
11000, S&P at 1300, and both the l year and 30 year treasuries up
slightly. His pick is Cardinal Health, which supplies equipment to
DONN CONNER, who is the Managing Partner in Reed, Conner
and Birdwell, in absentia. DONN expects the DOW to be 10,525, S&P
at 1225; l year up3.05, 30 year about even. He likes Merck as a stock
to ride, plus PRPS, whatever that is…
LEE DUNAYER, with Merrill Lynch in BH, reminds us that
earnings are what matter. He noted the fiscal stimulus by Mr. Greenspan,
but that's about over. Dow at l0,650, S&P 1207, l year up to 4.5%,
30 year slightly down. He likes growth companies, thus picks Pfizer
(had to look it up in the medicine cabinet for spellling), who have
good advance prospects. He expects them to grow by 20%, and earn 15%,
but reminds us to stay diversified.
DICK ROBINSON is a Registered Investment Adviser, and
he expects the first two quarters of this year to be flat, and then
average out at 2.5% growth. Dow at 12,500, and he likes Pacific Care,
which is almost an HBO.
LEO TSENG, with Merrill Lynch in CC, asks for good luck
- "I need that". He does not advocate the use of darts in making your
picks, but does expect a tough year. There will be another terrorist
attack, somewhere, and earnings will be down. DOW at 10,000, l year
treasuries 3.5, 30 year 5.5. He recommends a REIT, Healthcare Properties,
with a two billion net worth.. They own 400 properties, have paid
7 to 10% every year - the dividend will be there. Choose value over
growth this year. LEO suggests that fast track approval in trade agreements,
which has now been approved, is not necessarily good.
PP STEVE SCHERER, Managing partner of Scherer, Bradford,
Lyster, The Private Financial Counseling Group, expects the Dow to
be 11,300 and S&P at 1300. 1 year treasuries 3.0, and 30 year, 6.0.
He also advocated Pfizer, one of their successful products being Lipotor,
which apparently works for 80% of those who try It.. He reminds us
that bio-genetics is a truly exciting field, which will lead, for
example, to a patient just spitting in a cup, and a full diagnosis
- and treatment plan - will emerge. The bio-chip is coming, with your
entire medical history encrypted.
As a final cautionary note, we are reminded that two
of our panelists last year, in suggesting energy stocks, picked Enron
- bring back the darts! Seriously, thanks for these public predictions
- you are now on record.
After our luncheon meeting, the Yearling Committee,
chaired by HARLAN LEWIS met to decide how best to orient incoming
members. It was agreed to continue the occasional breakfast meeting
- with good advance notice - plus having a social evening, probably
at SALLY BRANT'S, to get spouses involved. Let us not forget that
one of the strengths of WVRC is the involvement of spouses in our
programs. And be reminded - if you sponsor a new member, it's up to
you to be sure they attend these orientation gatherings, OK?
YOE, Ernie Wolfe